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Yup, in fact the 10y2y spread is still negative (albeit very nearly zero now), and we know there's always a bear market first when it reverts back to positive. So the bull market (at least in equities) is probably in 2026 at the earliest. Aside from the question of how crypto will react is the question of BTC vs. the rest as you said. We could see BTC rally for geopolitical reasons while the rest of crypto lags (especially hype coins disappearing). Just in the last few days, BTC has mostly flip-flopped while "money" coins like LTC and Monero have gained and everything else is bleeding.